Role conceptions, order transition and institutional balancing in the Asia-Pacific: a new theoretical framework
Kai He
ABSTRACT
The dawn of the twenty-first century witnessed a new wave of multilateral initiatives in the Asia-Pacific. By integrating institutional balancing theory and role theory, the author proposes a new theoretical framework—‘balance of roles’—to explain the variations in institutional strategies by different states. It is argued that a state’s role conception will shape its institutional balancing strategies in an order transition period. An order defender, like the USA, is more likely to adopt exclusive institutional balancing to exclude its target from its dominated institutions. An order challenger, such as China, will choose both inclusive and exclusive institutional balancing to maximise its own power and legitimacy in a new international order. As a kingmaker, a proactive second-tier state is more likely to pick an inter-institutional balancing strategy to initiate new institutions for competing for influence with existing institutions. An institutionalised order transition might be more peaceful than widely perceived.
KEYWORDS: Institutional balancing, order transition, role conceptions, role theory, US–China relations
亚太地区的角色观念，秩序转变和制度平衡：一个新的理论框架
摘要
二十一世纪的亚太地区出现了新的多边倡议浪潮。通过整合制度平衡理论和角色理论，作者提出了一个新的理论框架——“角色平衡”来解释不同国家的制度策略差异。有人认为，国家的角色观念将在秩序转型时期塑造本国的制度平衡策略。像美国这样的秩序捍卫者更有可能采取排他性制度平衡，将目标从其主导的机构中排除。像中国这样的秩序挑战者将选择包容性和排他性制度平衡，以便在新的国际秩序中最大限度地发挥其自身的力量和合法性。一个积极主动的二线国家更倾向于选择一个机构间平衡战略来启动新机构，与现有机构争夺影响力。制度化的秩序转型可能比普遍认知中的更为和平。
关键词：制度平衡，秩序转变，角色观念，角色理论，美中关系