【内容提要】
East Asian security architecture has become very fluid, multi-layered, and not yet fully institutionalized.Several regional regimes have been created--ASEAN, ASEAN+3, East Asian Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, APEC, and a plethora of Track 2 and Track 1 & 1/2—but it is not clear which of these institutions can meet the security challenges of the region. This institutionalization could be undermined by a trend in US-China relations to divide East Asia into a new bipolar structure.
This article would argue that regional regimes, both existing and emerging, will counter a US-China trend to divide East Asia into a new bipolar structure.A US-China-Japan trilateral mechanism, in particular, could mitigate the potential for a “strategic cleavage” that would divide East Asia and force the region to choose sides.
Whether there will be a bipolar or multilateral East Asian future order is contingent on the strength of a trilateral mechanism that has not yet formally emerged and institutionalized. US-China-Japan relations need this kind of mechanism but there is not yet a Track 1 institution established for it. There have been numerous Track 2 and Track 1 & ½ projects for the last 25 years that never evolved into a Track 1.
Some Chinese scholars believe that this US-China bipolar trend cannot be influenced by East Asian regional regimes because the US-China power management overshadows all regional institutional designs and subsequently divides them.However, this article would argue that there is an emerging trilateral mechanism that is being constructed in the foreign policy behavior of the US, China and Japan, although it has not yet been formalized at the Track 1 level. This trilateral mechanism could span and thus mitigate a potential bipolar order in East Asia.
Because this trilateral mechanism is forming outside of traditional state-to-state relations, foreign ministries feel challenged by it. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has no department to manage trilateral relations. Policy towards Japan is managed in the Department of Asian Affairs. Policy towards the US is in the Department of North American and Oceanian Affairs
The 2012 Sino-Japanese crisis over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands presents a case study to examine whether the outline of a US-China-Japan trilateral mechanism has emerged. The question this paper will address is to what extent is the US-China-Japan trilateral relationship perceived to be moving towards a stable trilateral mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region, and to what extent is it perceived to be moving toward a balance of power triangle with the tensest bilateral relations being Sino-Japanese relations which gives the US the pivot position.
【作者简介】
Gaye Christoffersen, resident professor of international politics, Johns Hopkins University-Nanjing University Center for Chinese and American Studies. This paper is written specifically for Nanda Asia-Pacific Review sponsored by Centre for Asia-Pacific Development Studies, Nanjing University.